John Serrapere publishes a
weekly newsletter which includes in-depth research,
charts & graphs and insights into current and past markets. Click the below links to view a preview of what the weekly inFocus newsletter has to offer. To view this week's entire newsletter as well as all past newsletters, you must create an account.
Inflation Risk Dominates
November 9, 2021
This week, three alternative versions of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) are InFocus: the traditional capitalization (Cap)-weighted SPX, the equal-weighted, and the reverse-cap-weighted version.
Volatility Will Rise
September 21, 2021
For the rest of 2021 and beyond,
markets are going to be very volatile.
The Fed is going to make money worth less. How do we
hedge? When stocks are at a reasonable value, they are a hedge against high
The FED Is Complacent or Clueless on Inflation Risk!
February 18, 2021
Arrow Insights favors global assets, moderate risk asset allocations and managed futures. Our investment rationale is based upon sustained weakness in the U.S. Dollar ($USD) attributable to yield repression policies enforced by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and excessive money supply growth due to money printing.
Uncertainty, A 2022 Poly-crisis and Global Yield
June 28, 2022
Normal is nebulous. The 2000-2019 Normal was much worse than the 20th Century Normal!
Arrow Insights (AI) conducts research for the weekly InFocus. AI
reviews economic and market factors relevant to specific financial markets.
Each InFocus reviews asset classes and index performance within the context of
asset allocation. The primary or secondary objectives are hedging inflation,
deflation, or both. Each InFocus reviews a portfolio strategy model or index
relevant to this process.
Jones Global Yield Index (DJGYLDT) is InFocus. Its portfolio comprises
60% global stocks and 40% global bonds. Figure 1 plots DJGYLDT and two bond
benchmarks: the Core U.S. Aggregate Bond Index and J.P Morgan Emerging Market
Bond Index. Since Jan 1, 2006, global yield has bested domestic bonds and emerging
market bonds by 88% and 70%, respectively, on a cumulative return basis,
primarily because DJGYLDT records mostly positive correlations to inflation and
the business cycle (economic growth).
The AI Business
Cycle Index (AIBC) measures the 48-month rate of change in Real Gross Domestic
Product Growth. AIBC peaked in 2000 (not shown), 2006, and 2019; Inflation
peaked in Jul 2008, toughed in 2009 and 2021 at -1.8% and 0.1%, and soared to
8.6% in May 2022. DJGYLDT performs best when the CPI and AIBC are stable or
rising—when price volatility in items harvested, produced, and consumed are