John Serrapere publishes a weekly newsletter which includes in-depth research, charts & graphs and insights into current and past markets. Click the below links to view a preview of what the weekly inFocus newsletter has to offer. To view this week's entire newsletter as well as all past newsletters, you must create an account. 


Inflation Risk Dominates
November 9, 2021
This week, three alternative versions of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) are InFocus: the traditional capitalization (Cap)-weighted SPX, the equal-weighted, and the reverse-cap-weighted version.

Volatility Will Rise
September 21, 2021
For the rest of 2021 and beyond, markets are going to be very volatile. The Fed is going to make money worth less. How do we hedge? When stocks are at a reasonable value, they are a hedge against high inflation.

The FED Is Complacent or Clueless on Inflation Risk!
February 18, 2021
Arrow Insights favors global assets, moderate risk asset allocations and managed futures. Our investment rationale is based upon sustained weakness in the U.S. Dollar ($USD) attributable to yield repression policies enforced by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and excessive money supply growth due to money printing.


Financial Instability, Global Conflict & Asset Allocation
March 28, 2023


Arrow Insights (AI) conducts research for the weekly InFocus. AI reviews economic and market factors relevant to specific financial markets. Each InFocus examines asset classes and index performance within an asset allocation context. The primary or secondary objectives are hedging Inflation, deflation, or both. Each InFocus reviews a portfolio strategy model or index relevant to this process.

Asset allocation results depend on inflation risks structurally rooted in shifts in global trade and global financialization (open border capital flows). Ramifications from the Ukraine War—geopolitical risks and easy money policies since 2008—will prevent a return “set it and forget it” portfolios optimized by benign interest rates. We are in the early stages of a long secular period of inflation that has stayed above the U.S. Consumer Price Index’s (CPI’s) mean near 3% since 1919. Why? Future economic factors are less likely to foster a 50-year-plus period of declining inflation rates that lifted bonds well above their historic mean real returns (net of inflation). The experiment with zero-risk-free rates is over!    

The Dorsey Wright Global Tactical Allocation Model (DWTA) is InFocus. DWTA is currently positioned to hedge “HIGH” Inflation Risk (Figure 1).  The portfolio holds zero bonds, and its model sold U.S. dollars for silver (Figure 2). DWTA also holds a 21% allocation in energy stocks and basic materials and 30% in foreign stocks, boosting its ability to hedge high inflation.        


AI Read More button.png